HANDICAPPING THE

HANDICAPPING THE "COMEBACKING" FIGHTER
By CHARLES JAY

I am always wary of fighters who were highly-touted, then suffer their first career loss, then make a return to action. And if they take an especially long hiatus, I'm even more careful. That's because any undefeated fighter who loses undergoes something of a transformation, since naturally, in this day and age, it does indeed change his career.

This could take the form of mental and emotional doubts about himself, having tasted defeat for the first time. It could conceivably make a fighter a little more "gun shy." Those fighters who are mentally tough can come back strong in their next fight against a substantial opponent, which would probably be the next fight that is posted with a betting line. Part of that could be because they've managed to pull something positive out of a loss, or have diagnosed some weakness that can be corrected. The support structure for the fighter looms large here. It's one thing to be a front-runner; to deal with adversity is another thing entirely.

Be wary of fighters who get a considerable buildup, then lose a fight in disappointing fashion, then go into a shell. That's an indicator - or may be - that the fighter has a very difficult time dealing with the defeat. Those fighters rarely, if ever, come back better than before, and often-times never realize what was perceived to be their potential.

I guess one obvious example of this in recent years involved heavyweight Michael Grant, who received a buildup from HBO that may have, in a sense, far exceeded reality. Grant overcame some well-selected opponents while being brought along carefully. At the same time, he was hailed by promoters and HBO as possibly "the next great heavyweight" - obviously a product of their hunger to see somebody become a "savior" for the heavyweight division. His trainer even went so far as to say he had the potential to be the greatest heavyweight of all time.

Indeed, Grant, at 6'7", and with considerable physical skills, looked like someone who was going to be a force to be reckoned with. A knockout win over Andrew Golota, in which Grant got off the deck to win, seemed to confirm this. But though Grant was a talent, he was a RAW talent. And with the HBO hype, he was rushed into a fight with Lennox Lewis for the heavyweight title. Grant went right after Lewis, which caused the champion to fire back earlier than anticipated. As a result, Grant found himself out of commission after TWO swift rounds.

Instead of getting right back into the fray, Grant stayed out of action for fifteen months before returning. This immediately raised questions as to whether Grant, who was quite obviously not ready to fight someone like Lewis, had been emotionally destroyed by the experience. His first fight back was July 21, 2001 against Jameel McCline. McCline was raw too, in fact probably not as polished as Grant. But he was quick, strong, and a quick learner. And for Grant, this was his first fight under a new trainer, Teddy Atlas - a man known to develop some acrimonious relationships with fighters over time.

I remember going on a radio show and remarking to the host - honest to God - that you never knew about a guy like Grant; that he might just go down from the first solid punch he got hit with. That's pretty much what happened, although I'm not even sure McCline's left hook, just seconds into the fight, was all that solid. After that, it was another 7-1/2 months before Michael Grant got back into the ring again. This time he fought a whole bunch of low-level opponents; one of them was Thomas Williams, who had been indicted for fight-fixing the year before (it was later changed to an exhibition). This was an indication of how desperate Grant's management, which was composed of capable people, was to put wins on his record. When Grant finally fought a credible foe, he was topped in seven rounds by Dominick Guinn, who himself had been lightly tested up to that time.

Clearly the combination of Grant's fragile psyche and Atlas' overbearing personality did not constitute a winning formula. Michael Grant was never the same after the fight with Lewis.

Be on the lookout for these signs in other fighters, and take the opportunity to grab some value in the betting odds if it presents itself.

Copyright 2006 Total Action Inc.