BEYOND THE STATS

BEYOND THE STATS: BACKDOOR TD'S
By CHARLES JAY

If you simply look at the final score to analyze the after-effects of a game, you are missing the whole point of handicapping. You need to know how to study a box score, because there’s a lot more to the game than just the score, especially when you’re looking ahead to the next game. I study every game story and box score I can, because more often than not there’s something the final score doesn’t tell you. Over this series of pieces we're going to look at some of the things you need to look for when you study the story from a game:

BACKDOOR TD’s – This is particularly applicable in college football. In the pros, it's rare that you would have a line that went over a couple of touchdowns, but in college, you can easily see a line between and "have" and a "have-not" that can be 35 points or more. Teams that are catching a lot of points, are way behind in a game, then score some garbage touchdowns late to bring themselves within the number are said to be covering through the "backdoor." This can make end results rather deceiving. So backdoor TD's are meaningless scores that generally make a game look much closer than it really is. There are going to be times when a team that may be a big favorite lets up after the outcome has more or less been decided. It is at that point, when perhaps third-team players are in the game, that the outclassed opponent, which may still be using its first-teamers, come up with a score or two to try and make it more respectable. Sometimes this makes a difference in the pointspread outcome, sometimes it doesn’t. Either way, those touchdowns really don’t make much of a difference to the winning team, with a few exceptions (although the more cynical types may argue here – there are always going to be people who think the coaches are betting on their own games). When analyzing a game, try to decipher how the team did when the outcomes of their games were in doubt; that gives you a truer barometer of what their REAL performance is like. By the same token, try to identify teams that make a habit of continuing to try and score to make games closer late – they might wind up being a profitable proposition as a big underdog.

This kind of activity on the part of the losing team does not necessarily have to be cosmetic. If they're not using first-string, the team might have some freshmen and younger players who are going to get a chance to go in the ball game and show what they can do so as to garner more playing time in the future. A team that is bad enough to fall so far behind may not have a lot of depth, but what they may have is a relatively even distribution of "talent" between the first and second stringers. So while the favored team that is way ahead may lose something by going to its third team (this especially works at home, where more players can dress), the dog that is way behind may not lose a lot by putting its substitutes in.

There may also be a clear distinction to be drawn between a program that is on the way up and one that is on the way down. Some teams are newcomers to Division I football, or have brought in a new coach with high hopes, but who recognizes that there is some rebuilding that has to be done. Scoring touchdowns and making games look competitive against bigger, more well-established programs can turn into a "moral victory" for these schools. There is nowhere to go but up. Then there are the programs languishing in mediocrity or outright destitution, for which there is little hope for the present or the future, whose coach may be on the way out, and who give up instead of making attempts to move forward in the latter stages of games, when it has become obvious that the contest is long since lost. Know the difference between these kinds of programs.

The personality of the respective coaches also has to be taken into account. During a blowout, you've heard the TV announcers sometimes say, "He's coaching all the way to the end," when catching a shot of the losing head coach on the sidelines. Well, that's true enough. Some of them are engaged in morale building, and so they're looking for anything positive their team can do, up tot he final gun. On the other sideline, there are those coaches who have a tendency to run up the score - usually because they figure the higher the margin of victory, the greater the impression they'll create with people who vote in the polls. It may be tougher for a team to score backdoor touchdowns against coaches like that. But some guys are more gentlemanly - they'll almost consciously try not to run up the score because they think it will be embarrassing for the other team. He'll let up on defense too.

It may be a good idea to classify coaches in that regard, so you have a better read on whether backdoor touchdowns can potentially be a factor in a game.

Copyright 2006 Total Action Inc.