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THE SITUATION: You're in a standard multi-deck game with soft doubling available. You draw the Ace and the seven, while the dealer shows the always-tricky upcard of two. Your options are to hit, stand, or double. What's the proper move? THE CORRECT PLAY: Stay where you are!! THE EXPLANATION: The hand of Ace-seven will leave you with a total of 18 if you decide not to do anything with it. The dealer, holding a two, has to basically draw two ten-value cards in a row to bust. Otherwise, the great likelihood is that he's going to be able to make a hand for himself. In fact, the dealer will bust about 35% with an upcard of two; however, he'll only be able to beat a total of 18 approximately 37% of the time. So the bottom line is that he will beat you in 37% of the case scenarios, giving you about 49% winners (the rest are pushes). If you double down here, you're going to win at about the same rate, but you're going to lose more than six more times out of every hundred. So while standing on the Ace-seven versus a two is not a play which is going to make you rich, it certainly beats the alternative, from a percentage standpoint. That's why it's the move for you!! |
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