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THE SUPER BOWL -- February 1

CAROLINA vs. NEW ENGLAND (@ Houston) -- Absolutely no one can discount what the New England Patriots have accomplished this season. After the very rough start in the opener, a 31-0 rout by Buffalo, which came on the heels of the controversial release of Lawyer Milloy, things could have taken a wrong turn very easily. Instead, New England is the winner of 14 straight games - the first team to do that since the 1972 Dolphins. And they're favored by a full touchdown here. 

The Patriots have an awful lot going for them - the best secondary in the league, allowing just 53% completions in an era when quarterbacks aren't doing the job unless they complete over 60%; a run defense that yielded just 3.6 yards per carry and only one 100-yard rusher (Clinton Portis of Denver). A short passing game led by Tom Brady, who is gunning for his second Super Bowl ring as a starter; able wide receivers; good special teams; and coach of the year candidate Bill Belichick, whose ability to come up with defensive game plans to thwart his opponent's strengths is legend.

But in a sense, New England had two very different seasons, and we're not talking about before and after the second loss of the season (to Washington). We're referring to the Patriots' performance at home and on the road. In Foxboro the team was not just good, not just great, but dominant, winning all ten games, covering nine of them, and allowing an average of 9.6 ppg, including just 22 points in its last six. Away from Foxboro, however, things were a great deal different for this team. Certainly they won games - six out of eight, in fact - and had a 5-2-1 record against the number. But over that schedule there were overtime wins by three and six points, and other straight-up victories by four, four, and five points. So tight games were the rule, rather than the exception. Brady threw only one interception at home all year (in the playoffs), but tossed 12 pickoffs on the road. And New England allowed 21 ppg away from the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium - hardly the stuff of legendary teams.

In short, one of the factors the Pats built a fearsome reputation on will not be present at all for them on Super Sunday. No major home field advantage. And no edge to be derived from having the elements of weather in their favor either. 

Many folks, including us, are a little surprised to see Carolina cutting a swath through its opposition on the way to the Super Bowl. But there was nothing fluky about road wins at St. Louis and Philadelphia. Carolina was 9-10 ATS, but most of that was when laying points, as the oddsmaker sensed its strength early on. The Panthers were right at home as an underdog, covering five of six games in that role. And they are no strangers to playing close ballgames, with 13 contests decided by six points or less. John Fox has put together a team that has most of the elements of Super Bowl contenders - a solid defense, which jelled in the playoffs (allowed just two TD's in three games). One of the best offensive lines in the NFL. A running game spearheaded by Pro Bowler Stephen Davis (1444 yards), and with DeShawn Foster in a backup role, they can always have a fresh back on the field. Wide receivers in Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad who can make big plays. A QB in Jake Delhomme who is solid and who doesn't "lose games" for his team, and a kick returner in Rod "He Hate Me" Smart who can put this team in good field position. 

New England would seem the side most likely to force turnovers - they have a +20 ratio on the season, compared to just +4 for Carolina. Again, though, the home field bias plays into it, as the Pats had just a +2 ratio outside of Foxboro. Conversely, Carolina is at +9 away from Charlotte. 

The Pats have gotten used to having the good fortune of being at home, and working with the benefit of the "elements" against opposing teams, playing on the road just once in the last eight weeks. But the running game has been far from consistent, averaging only 3.4 yards a carry and totaling over 135 yards just twice all year (compared to 4.0 and nine times for Carolina). Brady is hardly a mobile quarterback, so he may feel the pressure from a capable Panther pass rush that will be set to tee off on him. And if the Patriots' secondary is counting on turnovers, Delhomme, who's thrown just one pick in three playoff games, might not be there to provide it. 

Carolina may not pick up chunks of yardage on the ground, but they'll plug away, creating long drives. Bill Belichick has had a couple of weeks to design a game plan to counter the Panther offense, and John Fox would clearly like to play things close to the vest and keep things tight until late in the game. The Pats are not the type to take many chances on offense, so all of this will probably keep this game under the total. But that turns out to be good news for Carolina fans, because it will give reliable kicker John Kasay the opportunity to win it in the closing moments, like so many Panther games this season.

THE PLAYS: 

CAROLINA plus points ***
CAROLINA on money line **
(+235 at http://www.5dimes.com, +200 at http://www.wsex.com)











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