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COLLEGE FOOTBALL -- January 4

SUGAR BOWL - NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

FLORIDA STATE vs. VIRGINIA TECH -- There's an old saying about powerful men - TRULY powerful men don't need to outwardly demonstrate it to others. Or something like that. It's kind of been like that in the respective seasons turned in by Florida State and Virginia Tech. While the Hokies went out of their way to run up the score against "name" teams, especially at home (62-0 over Syracuse, 43-10 over Miami), the Seminoles seemingly didn't, content to come out with "W's" against the likes of Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson, and Florida. Right off the bat, that creates the impression that Virginia Tech is an awesome machine, which has mowed down everyone in its path, while FSU was perhaps fortunate to come out with a few of its wins. Well, maybe Florida State has had a few close shaves (especially against Clemson), but remember, Virginia Tech had to kick a late field goal to beat a weak West Virginia team. And one must keep in mind that FSU was #1 in the polls very early in the season, while Virgnia Tech had to do something dramatic to get the attention of pollsters (and indeed, they felt they were even in danger of being overtaken by Nebraska late in the season). Hence, the bloated statistics. 

Of course, that kind of panic might be expected when you have scheduled people like James Madison and UAB on your non-conference slate. But let's not create the impression that Virginia Tech is not very strong. They're strong. Redshirt freshman Michael Vick is playing like a veteran, avoiding mistakes; the running game has pounded many an opponent into submission, and the opportunistic defense has created turnovers and scoring chances. Plus the Gobblers have one of the truly unsung coaches in college football in Frank Beamer. And unlike some of their teams in previous years, which were virtually "land-locked," Virginia Tech can throw the ball and strike for the occasional big play. The Hokies have the speed, power, aggressiveness, and intangibles one might find in a very "live" dog play. 

But they're not the play here. WHY?

We've already explained that VIRGINIA TECH'S 'BULLY' POSITION, VIS-A-VIS FSU, IS PERHAPS A BIT DECEIVING: Florida State played a better schedule, beating bowl teams Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Florida, common opponents Miami, Clemson, and Virginia, and also tougher non-bowl opposition than VT, such as Louisiana Tech, NC State, Maryland, and a North Carolina team that was much healthier than it would later become.

EXPERIENCE: This is FSU's third championship game in the last four years. And they're looking for some redemption for last year's loss to Tennessee, where Marcus Outzen had to play for the injured Chris Weinke. Meanwhile, some of Virginia Tech's players having a little trouble handling all the media attention, namely the team's emotional leader, All-America defensive end Corey Moore. Also, no matter how you slice, there has to be SOME maturity advantage in having a 27-year-old QB who has had the life experience of playing more big games, not to mention minor league baseball, against a 19-year-old redshirt freshman who has yet to really play a critical game away from home.

THE "WIN ONE FOR THE GIPPER EFFECT": Much has been made of the fact that despite being in coaching all these years, Bobby Bowden has NEVER experienced an undefeated season, while each of his sons (Terry and Tommy) have. Bobby mentions it without prompting. And it will provide some special Seminole motivation here. 

TEAM SPEED: Bowden is an old hand at recruiting for speed, and he's been doing so ever since he's been at Florida State. In fact, he's one of the coaches who has set the tone for the rest of the nation. He's got it stockpiled, so it shows up on both sides of the ball and on special teams. Where else but a place like FSU can a receiver who might be a high NFL draft choice (Laveraneous Coles) is let go, and not really missed that much? The fact is, FSU has the edge in team speed, and speed becomes accentuated on artificial turf.

ANY PERCEIVABLE ADVANTAGE VIRGINIA TECH MIGHT POSSESS CAN BE COUNTERED EFFECTIVELY BY FSU: Where are Virginia Tech backers saying their team has an advantage? Let's examine it:

MICHAEL VICK'S ATHLETIC ABILITY. No question he's athletic, but the Seminoles possess plenty of speed on the outside ends and linebackers to keep him from dominating this game by running to the outside. If you don't believe it now, just check out NFL scouts' reports on these players over the next couple of years. 

VIRGINIA TECH'S "FEARSOME" DEFENSE: If there's anywhere Virginia Tech is vulnerable on defense, it's the ability to get burned on a big play. When playing a defense that is supposed to be dominating, a good policy is to "look long", because that is where you have the best chance to get "mano-a-mano", and at that point, it doesn't matter how good your defense is; it only matters how good your cornerback is. Miami QB Kenny Kelly was making big plays against VT until he got hurt in the second half of their game. FSU has the big-play threats to exploit this kind of vulnerability; with Peter Warrick, Ron Dugans, and some of their young studs on the outside, FSU can flood a secondary that may be missing nickelback Whitaker, who is hobbled. The Hokies will be hurt on plays up the field. 

VIRGINIA TECH'S SPECIAL TEAMS: It's common to over-emphasize Virginia Tech's special teams a bit. But the fact is, they blocked only TWO kicks this year. You know how many FSU blocked? SIX. No question the 'Noles have the superior field goal kicker in All-American Janikowski. VT's kickoff return people not likely to figure in this one, since they're looking at all touchbacks, and their kick returner, Hall, has a broken bone in his foot. Meanwhile, FSU will having the most dangerous player in America returning punts - Peter Warrick. FSU is also second best in the nation in net punt coverage. Florida State likely to have a decided ADVANTAGE in this area.

We're expecting a big game from Warrick, who 1) was not happy about being shut out of the Heisman awards ceremony, while Vick went; 2) had an off-game in last year's national title affair; 3) would like a springboard to propel him into the NFL Draft.

The Virginia Tech legend has grown through the season, as has the legend of Michael Vick. Not that none of it is deserved. We just think it's a bit overblown. As a result, we get what we think is unusual VALUE in the number with the more talented, deeper, faster, and more experienced (in big-game situations) team.

THE PLAY: FLORIDA STATE ****










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