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NFL POWER RATINGS - IN MY OWN LANGUAGE By CHARLES JAY, Editor/Publisher, TotalAction.com May 26, 2000 |
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Let me explain the way I do MY power ratings. I'm assigning two figures to each team - one represents my own odds for each team to win the Super Bowl. The other is an actual, real world numerical figure that reflects my early evaluation as to the strength of each team, relative to all the others (the "Jay Rating'). This is applied as a handicapping tool; that is, the numerical difference between two teams would represent the spread I might assign if the teams were playing on a neutral field. Then, home field advantages (largely dependent on judgment) would be factored in to make a "rough guide". For example, at home, St. Louis, with a 99 power rating and a home field edge of, say, four points, might be a 16 or 17-point favorite over my lowest-rated team, the Cleveland Browns, who have a rating of 86. Conversely, the Browns, who might only have a two, maybe three-point home field edge, would be a 11, 11-1/2, or 12-point underdog on their own field. Once again, it's a rough guide, and ratings are changed often for teams as each week of the season passes. Power ratings are based on a high figure of 100. And by the way, to get a wide comparison of Super Bowl odds from sportsbooks around the world, go through http://www.totalaction.com/ 1) ST. LOUIS RAMS Jay Rating = 99 To Win It All = 9/2 -- Until anyone dethrones them, Rams have to stand as the favorite. No basic changes in the system with Mike Martz taking the reins. Not a bad draft. And the rest of their division is way, way behind. They're almost a certainty to make it to the playoffs. 2) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Jay Rating = 97.5 To Win It All = 6/1 -- Only obstacles - the Jags have to figure out a way to beat Tennessee. And keep Fred Taylor healthy. 3) TENNESSEE TITANS Jay Rating = 97 To Win It All = 7/1 -- Drive to the Super Bowl masked a couple of potential weaknesses - a lack of pop in the passing attack, and some attrition in the secondary. But the mental toughness returns, and that's the most important thing. 4) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Jay Rating = 96.5 To Win It All = 8/1 -- Colts have to get tougher defensively. They hope they've started to address that by drafting Rob Morris. And the better defenses have managed to corral the Colt attack. 5) WASHINGTON REDSKINS Jay Rating = 96 To Win It All = 10/1 -- One thing you've got to say about the Redskins - Daniel Snyder has that George Steinbrenner-like attitude in bringing impact guys into the fold in a mad dash to win it all. Bruce Smith, Mark Carrier, Jeff George, Lavar Arrington, Chris Samuels are all welcome additions. Deion next? But remember - last year's 30th-ranked defense has to make a quantum leap. 6) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Jay Rating = 95.5 To Win It All = 10/1 -- Well, they brought Keyshawn Johnson in for a purpose. Now let's see if Tony Dungy will open things up enough to let him carry it out. 7) DENVER BRONCOS Jay Rating = 94.5 To Win It All = 15/1 -- Certainly some questions here, but Broncos ought to have a lot of the pieces back in place to make a run at it, including Terrell Davis back in the backfield. And this team showed an awful lot of character by not quitting toward the end of the season. The QB situation may change between now and training camp, but we're looking at them "as is". If Griese continues his development, they're back in the playoffs. 8) NEW YORK JETS Jay Rating = 94 To Win It All = 15/1 -- The Keyshawn trade may not turn out as bad as some people think. The Jets should have a better pass rush this year, and Testaverde's back. As long as they can run the ball, and play some defense, Jets should be there in the end. 9) GREEN BAY PACKERS Jay Rating = 93.5 To Win It All = 18/1 -- Addition by subtraction - Packers will be better just by getting Ray Rhodes out of town. 10) DALLAS COWBOYS Jay Rating = 93.5 To Win It All - 20/1 -- It's "put up or shut up" time for Troy Aikman. He'll get to run the offense the way he wants, and gets an explosive complement to Rocket Ismail in Joey Galloway. Now, if only the secondary doesn't self-destruct......... 11) BUFFALO BILLS Jay Rating = 93 To Win It All = 25/1 -- Maybe somebody will get serious over there and let Doug Flutie play the whole season. 12) MINNESOTA VIKINGS Jay Rating = 93 To Win It All = 25/1 -- There's no getting around the fact that the QB situation is going to stand in the way - at least this year. And where's the "D"? 13) OAKLAND RAIDERS Jay Rating = 93 To Win It All = 25/1 -- Raiders addressed special team needs in a big way in the draft. But they always seem to come up a heart short. 14) BALTIMORE RAVENS Jay Rating = 92.5 To Win It All = 30/1 -- Brian Billick should have this team much better prepared offensively going into the season. And that makes Ravens a legit darkhorse. But they've got a couple of obstacles to overcome in their own division first. And they await the result of the Ray Lewis trial. 15) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Jay Rating = 92.5 To Win It All = 30/1 -- They need to address some softness in the middle of the defense. And the way they folded up down the stretch disturbs us. 16) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Jay Rating = 92 To Win It All = 35/1 -- The Chiefs will run the ball. They'll play good defense. But this team will forever be looking for ways to add real explosiveness to the offense. 17) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Jay Rating = 91.5 To Win It All = 40/1 -- This always seems to be the team that could, but can't. 18) MIAMI DOLPHINS Jay Rating = 91.5 To Win It All = 40/1 -- They go into the season with a middle-of-the-road quarterback, middle-of-the-road running backs, and a middle-of-the-road coach. Where do you think that puts them? 19) ATLANTA FALCONS Jay Rating = 91 To Win It All = 50/1 -- If healthy, Jamal Anderson should come back to make a difference. But Falcons are one QB injury away from being on the bread lines again. 20) NEW YORK GIANTS Jay Rating = 90.5 To Win It All = 65/1 -- The way this offense is structured, it's going to put a lot of pressure on rookie Ron Dayne. If he can handle it, this is a wild-card contender. 21) DETROIT LIONS Jay Rating = 90.5 To Win It All = 70/1 -- This is a potential house of cards, but James Stewart should help immensely. Don't ever sell Bobby Ross short. 22) CHICAGO BEARS Jay Rating = 90 To Win It All = 75/1 -- Bears could make a big leap - they have a nice offense going with McNown and a good receiving corps, and a legit head coach in Dick Jauron. But defense needs to come up with some answers. 23) ARIZONA CARDINALS Jay Rating = 90 To Win It All = 75/1 -- Cards addressed the running back situation with Thomas Jones. But holes are opening up on defense. 24) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Jay Rating = 89 To Win It All = 100/1 -- If not for a mid-season stretch of games where they decided not to show up, San Diego might've been in the playoffs. 25) CAROLINA PANTHERS Jay Rating = 89 To Win It All = 100/1 -- There's a lot of work to be done on defense here. 26) PITTSBURGH STEELERS Jay Rating = 89 To Win It All = 125/1 -- Does the Kordell "experiment" continue? 27) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Jay Rating = 88.5 To Win It All = 200/1 -- Once again they'll have problems scoring. 28) SAN FRANCISCO FORTY-NINERS Jay Rating = 88 To Win It All = 250/1 -- They need too many players to contend any time soon. 29) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Jay Rating = 88 To Win It All = 250/1 -- They're the Saints, aren't they? 30) CINCINNATI BENGALS Jay Rating = 87 To Win It All = 500/1 -- We have absolutely no problem selling Bruce Coslet short. 31) CLEVELAND BROWNS Jay Rating = 86 To Win It All = 1000/1 -- They'll get there sooner or later. Just not now. |
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