CASINO extra |
MARCH 22, 2002 |
|
Brought to you by TotalAction.com
WHAT ARE YOU PLAYING TODAY?
TOTAL ACTION'S OSCAR ODDS
SPECIAL
NEWS
Nice article we were able to find, written by Lawrie Zion of the Los Angeles Times, which
explores some of the gambling aspects of the Oscars. In the story, the manager of
Centrebet.com says, "In our first year we took a total of $8000 to $10,000 on six
categories. By last year that figure had grown to $250,000, and it is now a serious
betting event as well as being a good publicity tool."
Click here to read the story - "A MIND TO BET
ON OSCARS?"
Also, a story about how the Australian sportsbooks are getting a lot of action on Russell
Crowe as the awards approach -- "CROWE REMAINS
FAVORITE WITH AUSSIE PUNTERS"
Another story here, by Gretchen Hyman of Internet.com - "PLACE
YOUR BETS - IT'S OSCAR TIME", which also features a lot of sites where
you can get Oscar information
BETS AROUND THE 'NET
By CHARLES JAY, Editor/Publisher, TotalAction.com
Posted March 22, 2002
WE'RE NEAR THE FINISH!!
One of the major controversies that has been taking place during this Oscar voting season
concerns the "smear" campaign against "A Beautiful Mind", the picture
that went into this process as the clear favorite in many categories and is still there in
the opinion of many. The many reports of infidelity, violence, and other transgressions
against the film's subject, mathematician John Nash, seem to have been directed toward
leading voters to believe the film was less than accurate about the brilliant, but
schizophrenic, Nobel Prize winner. A well-timed appearance on "60 Minutes" seems
to have swayed some people, however, and as has been pointed out by many a critic, when is
a movie biography ever that accurate anyway?
The Ron Howard-directed film is holding steady as the favorite in the Best Picture
category at most of the online sportsbooks. At Olympic
Sports, it is a 1/3 favorite to capture the grand prize. V-Wager.com has it at -305 (essentially the same price),
and at Intertops, it checks in at -200 (or 1/2). It
looks as if the chief competition will come from "Lord of the Rings - Fellowship of
the Ring", which is 5/2 at both Olympic and Intertops, and +215 at V-Wager. The other
Best Picture nominees - "Moulin Rouge", "In The Bedroom", and
"Gosford Park", are all at relatively long odds. It really is a two-horse race.
Russell Crowe, who won Best Actor last year for "Gladiator", is
nominated this year for the third straight time (he was up for Best Actor for "The
Insider" two years ago), and he's laying a price everywhere. Olympic and Gamebookers.com have him at 2/5, Canbet.com at -222, V-Wager at -265, and Intertops at
-200 for the award, which, if he wins, would make him just the third actor to win in this
category two consecutive years, joining Spencer Tracy and Ton Hanks in what is a most
exclusive group. The only other actor who is being given very much of a chance in this
group is Denzel Washington, a former Supporting Actor winner who is not exactly fetching a
bargain price, relative to Crowe; +225 is the best at the three books we've mentioned, and
that price can be found at Olympic Sports. Washington has delivered powerhouse
performances in previous years he's been considered one of the favorites - in
"Malcolm X" and "The Hurricane", but failed to come home with the
Oscar on either of those occasions.
Sissy Spacek - up for Best Actress - is one front-runner who actually
appears to be losing ground. The "In The Bedroom" star opened at -400 at Olympic
and -300 at V-Wager, but she is down to -200 and -275 at those outlets, respectively, and
sits at -175 at Intertops. The competition is coming from Nicole Kidman of "Moulin
Rouge" and Halle Berry of "Monster's Ball". Kidman has dropped to as low as
7/2 at V-Wager, with Berry breathing down Spacek's neck, with prices of +125 at V-Wager
and +140 at Intertops.
Best Supporting Actor is extremely hard to predict, but the front-runners
seem to be clear. Both Ian McKellen of "Lord of the Rings" and Jim Broadbent of
"Iris" - veterans of the British stage who have done great work for years in
films - are head and shoulders above the field here. McKellen has recently overtaken
Broadbent and is a -175 favorite at V-Wager, although you must also lay a price (-125) on
Broadbent there. McKellen is -167 at Intertops, while you can actually get a price on
Broadbent (8/5, or +160) at Olympic. The best price we found on
Broadbent, however, was at Canbet, which had him at 5/2, or +250. Ethan Hawke, the young actor who played opposite
Denzel Washington in "Training Day", has gotten some support from critics, but
there is no real "buzz" about his Oscar chances. He's a robust 15/1 at
Intertops.
Jennifer Connelly of "A Beautiful Mind" is a big, big favorite in the Best
Supporting Actress category - listed at -417 at Canbet, -500 at
Gamebookers.com,
-400 at Paddy Power, -800 at Olympic, -810 at
V-Wager, and -667 at Intertops. Everyone else is pretty much in the 6/1 to 10/1 range.
Ron Howard of "A Beautiful Mind" is the favorite for Best Director,
clocking in at -227 at Canbet, and -200 at Gamebookers, Olympic,
Intertops, and Paddy
Power. Peter Jackson, director of "Lord of the Rings", is as high as 5/2 at
Olympic, and as low as 11/10 at Gamebookers. Robert Altman is 5/1 at Paddy Power.
There are a few props around - Paddy Power has a "Halle Berry in the Bedroom"
prop, where if she wins and the film "In The Bedroom" wins for Best Picture, the
payoff is 33/1. If "Lord of the Rings" wins Best Picture and Will Smith wins
Best Actor for "Ali", it's a price of 10/1. And if British women win both Best
Actress and Best Supporting Actress, it's 20/1. Canbet has posted each of the favorites
against the field - for example, Ian McKellan is -118, with the rest of the Best
Supporting Actor field at -104. At Intertops, it's -125/-115 that "Lord of the
Rings" will win MORE than 5-1/2 Oscars on Sunday.
Actually, I've been a little disappointed in the dearth of real creative Oscar
propositions out there. So we had to make up a whole bunch of own - over 30 of
them, in fact. You can click down the page to
find a list of props that SHOULD have been in somebody's sportsbook. And if any sportsbook
wants to post them before the big show, I'd be delighted!
For comic relief, Intertops has posted odds on the
"Razzies" (Raspberry Awards), which can best be described as the "evil
twin" of the Oscars - they honor the WORST in motion picture achievement. The film
they think may sweep the awards - "Freddy Got Fingered", which is a -140/Even
favorite to pick up more than 5.5 Razzies. The film's star, Thom Green, is -250 to win the
Worst Actor, followed by Kevin Costner (+250), Keanu Reeves (+400), John Travolta (+600),
and Ben Affleck (+1500). Mariah Carey is a solid choice as Worst Actress, at -400, with
Jennifer Lopez (+250), Penelope Cruz (+600), Angelina Jolie (+800), and Charlize Theron
(+1000) far behind. "Freddy Got Fingered" is the runaway favorite for Worst
Picture, at -500, with "Glitter" (Carey's movie) at +300, Driven at +600, 3000
Miles To Graceland (with Costner) at +800, and Pearl Harbor at +1500. Interesting trivial
tidbit - "Pearl Harbor" is up for Best Sound and Best Visual Effects at the
Oscars, so it could conceivably win an Oscar AND a Razzie in the same weekend! What a
perfecta!
Odds are changing all the time on these things - so check with the respective sportsbooks
to see which way the numbers have moved. And remember - you can't hurt by shopping around!
CHARLES JAY'S FEAR-FILLED OSCAR
PREDICTIONS
(For entertainment purposes only)
We have to say something in the form of a preface - we're not exactly PREDICTING who the
Oscar winners are going to be. You could probably look at the prohibitive favorites to
find that. We're searching for surprises - we're handicapping who might provide the value
in each of the following categories. We are NOT interested in favorites necessarily; in
fact, we want to BEAT the favorite.. And though the process of speculating gets a little
more scientific every year, who the hell knows who's going to win these awards anyway,
until they open that envelope?
BEST ACTOR
You know, RUSSELL CROWE has to be considered a very strong favorite here. The only thing
going against him is the fact that he won it last year, and there's a tendency to
"spread it around" if possible. The negative publicity about his film shouldn't
really affect the way people look at his performance. DENZEL WASHINGTON excelled at
playing a rather villainous character in "Training Day", but actors always have
an easier time playing the "bad guy". It's much tougher to portray a
schizophrenic, wouldn't you agree? If we were going to go after the "chalk"
anywhere, it would be here.
Actually, the guy who may have had the hardest job of all might just be our longshot
darkhorse here, and don't discount him entirely. WILL SMITH had to play someone who
everyone in the world has seen and heard a thousand times. Muhammad Ali is almost TOO
WELL-KNOWN to play effectively, but Smith did the job as well as anybody could have ever
hoped.
BEST ACTRESS
Seems like this might be a three-way race. SISSY SPACEK of "In The Bedroom" was
once thought to be the easy winner in this category, with NICOLE KIDMAN of "Moulin
Rouge" a strong contender. They deserve to be among the favorites. Apparently though,
the more Academy voters saw HALLE BERRY in "Monster's Ball", the more support
she garnered. She just might be worth the price.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
IAN MCKELLEN ("Lord of the Rings") and JIM BROADBENT ("Iris") seem to
be neck-and-neck, and realistically, either can win it. You'd be laying a price or getting
even money in most places, however, and that doesn't represent value. So our mission is to
find the darkhorse with a chance to win at a price. Can't see ETHAN HAWKE winning it, and
don't know if enough people really bothered to see BEN KINGSLEY in "Sexy Beast".
Maybe JON VOIGHT, who, in "Ali", faced a challenge almost as daunting as Will
Smith - playing someone whose larger-than-life persona was already etched so indelibly in
our minds (Howard Cosell). It's hard to construct a portrayal of a character like that
without descending into mimicry, but Voight manages. And Oscar voters like him - he
previously won a Best Actor for "Coming Home". If you get a good price, though
(5/2 or better), go with Broadbent.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Connelly of "A Beautiful Mind" is the runaway favorite here, but of
course, it's no fun to go with the chalk. And there's no value at all in laying the price.
So can we beat her with anyone? Probably not, but we can try. You've heard the old saying
about actors from the same movie canceling each other out? Well, it doesn't always happen,
but that may be the case here with HELEN MIRREN and two-time winner MAGGIE SMITH of
"Gosford Park". For some reason, in terms of playing a longshot, I'm thinking
MARISA TOMEI here, for "In The Bedroom". It's really a much better, more
measured performance than her over-the-top, Oscar-winning turn in "My Cousin
Vinny". And if Spacek were passed over by Oscar voters, this may be an opportunity to
reward an outstanding film, nominated for Best Picture but without a Best Director nod for
first-timer Todd Field.
BEST DIRECTOR
I think you might be able to steal some Oscar gold here. RON HOWARD has been tagged the
clear favorite, and I'm sure there's some sentimentality for him around Hollywood.
But the memory I still can't get out of my mind was how he won the Director's Guild award
a few years ago for "Apollo 13", a film for which he probably deserved an Oscar,
then was completely snubbed out of the nominations. Maybe that will work in his favor
here, but then again, maybe that mechanism will work against him. It might be time for
Oscar to finally reward a guy who arguably should have won this thing at least three times
- for "Nashville", "M*A*S*H", and "The Player". Of course
I'm talking about ROBERT ALTMAN. "Gosford Park" is not his best work, but he
managed to flawlessly commandeer perhaps the most talented ensemble cast of the year. But
then, no one's better with a large ensemble than Altman. You'll get a good price.
BEST PICTURE
I would think you might eliminate a film like IN THE BEDROOM, since it's unlikely that a
film would win Best Picture if its director didn't even get a nomination. I guess I could
say the same thing for MOULIN ROUGE, which will win a few technical awards. A BEAUTIFUL
MIND absolutely has to be a favorite here. Don't know if the sabotage campaign by
competitors did it enough irreparable damage or not, but the producers did a great job of
controlling that damage with John Nash's appearance on "60 Minutes". However,
you'll get a better price with a contender like LORD OF THE RINGS - FELLOWSHIP OF THE
RING. A film that got 13 nominations obviously has plenty of Academy support, and remember
- EVERYONE votes for Best Picture. You can get a good price, if you go to the right place.
ELSEWHERE
LET'S TALK ABOUT "MEMENTO" -- I want to say a few words about this film, which
is the only one this year that I saw three times. Chances are you didn't see it - because
it didn't do sensationally well at the box office (it IS out on video, though). I'm sure a
lot of people in the Academy didn't see it either - otherwise Guy Pearce (you remember him
as Edmund Exley in "L.A. Confidential") would have received more support for
Best Actor, and Carrie-Ann Moss may have gotten a nod as Best Supporting Actress. MEMENTO
is considered a leading contender in the "Original Screenplay" category - but
that's not what I want to zero in on.
MEMENTO is a strange and unique film. I won't give away the plot line, in case you haven't
seen it. But I will say that structurally, it's kind of like "Pulp Fiction", in
that events don't happen in sequence. Unlike "Pulp Fiction", though, things
happen completely in REVERSE sequence. If you walked into the middle of this film, or saw
only part of it on video, you might look at it as something of a confusing mess. But if
you saw the whole thing - and even better still, if you saw it more than once - it
definitely worked for you.
And there is one reason it DOES work - because the editing is fabulous. MEMENTO, from a
production standpoint, is more ABOUT editing than anything else, and depends on editing
more than any other film of the year. And it's probably one of the more glowing
achievements in film editing in the past decade. Cut this film the wrong way, and you have
an unmitigated disaster. Cut it the right way, as Dody Dorn did, and you have a cult
favorite that will stand the test of time.
When you consider that others in the trade vote on this award, it should get more than its
fair share of support just for being as daring as it is. MEMENTO is definitely a very
"live" contender in the BEST FILM EDITING category.
CHARLES JAY'S SUPER OSCAR QUIZ
The following are ten Oscar-related trivia questions of varying degrees of difficulty. See
if you can figure out the answers. If you can get eight out of ten correctly, I'll happily
send you a free copy of my latest e-book on casino gambling. Just send responses to me at charlesjay@totalaction.com - Good luck!
1) Which Oscar winner was not only a professional boxer, but once fought a world
heavyweight champion?
2) Which actor received nominations for Best Actor AND Best Supporting Actor for
the SAME performance?
3) Fans of the long-running TV series "Dallas" should remember that
three Oscar nominees (two of which were winners) played regular roles on the show, and
another Oscar winner played a very memorable single episode on the program. Who are these
actors?
4) What was the only X-rated film to win the Best Picture Oscar?
5) Which actress was nominated for her performance in a film directed by her
brother, who was also nominated?
6) Here's an easy one - which of this year's nominees in an acting category has a
daughter who won an Oscar?
7) Which gynecologist actually won an acting Oscar?
8) Which members of the cast of "Saturday Night Live", both past and
present, have been nominated for acting Oscars?
9) Which of this year's nominees was a cast member of the sitcom "A Different
World"?
10) Which of this year's nominees had his first feature role in a film called
"Romper Stomper"?
THE CHARLES
JAY LINE
For entertainment purposes only
Special Oscar Propositions
* ALL FOUR ACTING AWARDS WILL BE WON BY FIRST-TIME WINNERS -- 10/1
* ALL FOUR ACTING AWARDS WILL BE WON BY FOREIGN-BORN ACTORS -- 17/1
(* Note that Nicole Kidman was born in Honolulu)
* ALL FOUR ACTING AWARDS WILL BE WON BY BRITISH ACTORS -- 1700/1
* ALL FOUR ACTING AWARDS WILL BE WON BY PREVIOUS OSCAR WINNERS -- 14/1
* BEST ACTOR WILL BE WON BY A PREVIOUS OSCAR WINNER -- 1/8
* BEST ACTRESS WILL BE WON BY A PREVIOUS OSCAR WINNER -- 1/2
* BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS WILL BE WON BY A PREVIOUS OSCAR WINNER -- 4/1
* ALL FOUR ACTING AWARD WINNERS WILL COME FROM FILMS NOT NOMINATED FOR BEST PICTURE -- 150/1
* "A BEAUTIFUL MIND" WILL SWEEP ALL EIGHT AWARDS FOR WHICH IT IS NOMINATED -- 1450/1
* "A BEAUTIFUL MIND" WILL SWEEP BEST PICTURE, BEST ACTOR, AND BEST SUPPORTING
ACTRESS -- 5/2
* "GOSFORD PARK" WILL SWEEP ALL FIVE CATEGORIES IN WHICH IT IS NOMINATED -- 3600/1
* "BLACK HAWK DOWN" WILL SWEEP ALL FOUR AWARDS FOR WHICH IT IS NOMINATED -- 1600/1
* "LORD OF THE RINGS" WILL SWEEP ALL 13 AWARDS FOR WHICH IT IS NOMINATED -- 1,175,000/1
* "MOULIN ROUGE" WILL SWEEP ALL EIGHT AWARDS FOR WHICH IT IS NOMINATED -- 5300/1
* "IN THE BEDROOM" WILL SWEEP BEST PICTURE, BEST ACTOR, BEST ACTRESS, AND BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS -- 1400/1
* "A BEAUTIFUL MIND" WILL WIN NO OSCARS -- 570/1
* "GOSFORD PARK" WILL WIN NO OSCARS -- 16/5
* "MOULIN ROUGE" WILL WIN NO OSCARS -- 50/1
* "LORD OF THE RINGS" WILL WIN NO OSCARS -- 2500/1
* "I AM THE GREATEST" PARLAY -- WILL SMITH AND JON VOIGHT TO BOTH WIN FOR
"ALI" -- 70/1
* AFRICAN-AMERICANS TO WIN BOTH BEST ACTOR AND BEST ACTRESS -- 9/1
* DENZEL WASHINGTON AND ETHAN HAWKE TO BOTH WIN FOR "TRAINING DAY" -- 55/1
* BOTH WILL SMITH AND MAGGIE SMITH TO WIN OSCARS -- 100/1
* "MONSTER PARLAY" SPECIAL -- BOTH "MONSTERS INC." AND HALLE BERRY OF
"MONSTER'S BALL" TO WIN OSCARS -- 43/1
* THE AUSSIE EXACTA -- RUSSELL CROWE AND NICOLE KIDMAN TO BOTH WIN OSCARS -- 11/2
* JOHN WILLIAMS TO WIN FOR BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (he is nominated twice in that category) --
6/5
* "LORD OF THE RINGS" TO WIN OVER 4.5 OSCARS: -160; TO WIN
UNDER 4.5 OSCARS: +120
* "A BEAUTIFUL MIND" TO WIN OVER 3.5 OSCARS: -180; TO WIN UNDER
3.5 OSCARS: +140
* "MOULIN ROUGE" TO WIN OVER 3.5 OSCARS: +120; TO WIN UNDER 3.5
OSCARS: -160
* "PEARL HARBOR" TO WIN BOTH AN OSCAR AND A "RAZZIE" -- 40/1
|
|