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NCAA TOURNAMENT BIG ON "WILDCATTING"
By CHARLES JAY, Editor/Publisher, TotalAction.com
Posted March 18, 2003
A fair degree of controversy arose when Arizona and Kentucky, the two dominant powers in
college basketball, were positioned on the same side of the draw in the NCAA Tournament,
meaning that if both won through, they would meet each other in the national semi-finals,
not the finals. Still, they are the consensus 1-2 to win the championship according to
online sportsbooks.
At Olympic Sports (http://www.thegreek.com),
Kentucky is the favorite, at +270, while Arizona is +450. Oklahoma is next, at +800 (8/1),
while Texas and Kansas are both 10/1 (+1000). Florida and Pittsburgh, both of which
feature outstanding guard play, are interesting longshots, at 15/1 (+1500).
At Intertops (http://www.intertops.com),
Kentucky is a solid favorite at 2/1, with Arizona 3/1, followed by three Big 12 powers -
Oklahoma and Texas at 6/1 and Kansas at 8/1. Florida is 10/1, Pittsburgh 12/1, Duke is
14/1, and five teams are listed at 18/1 - U-Conn, Syracuse, Illinois, Louisville, and Wake
Forest. Defending national champion Maryland is 20/1.
Kentucky offers a little more value at World Sports Exchange (http://www.wsex.com), where Tubby Smith's squad is listed
at 3/1. Arizona is 4/1, and then the Big 12 trio of Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas are 10/1,
10/1, and 12/1, respectively. Maryland is 30/1 and U-Conn is 33/1. Two interesting
lonsgshots, who might make some noise in their regionals, are 50/1 propositions Stanford
and Memphis.
Sportsbook.com (http://www.sportsbook.com)
has brought some teams from the mid-majors into its listings, rather than list them as
"Field" bets, including Weber State of the Big Sky Conference (1000/1), Butler
and Wisconsin-Milwaukee of the Horizon Conference (300/1 and 1000/1, respectively), Ivy
League champion Pennsylvania (500/1), WAC champ Tulsa (500/1), and Colonial Conference
representative North Carolina-Wilmington (1000/1). But don't look to bet South Carolina
State, Vermont, East Tennessee State or Wagner as an individual proposition. Those schools
are all included in the "Field" at 100/1.
WHICH CONFERENCE WILL MEET THE CHALLENGE?
To give you an idea of how strong Kentucky is in the minds of bookmakers, consider that
even though the Big 12 has those three "giants" represented among the favorites
in the NCAA lineup, the Southeastern Conference is still the front-runner as the
conference to produce this year's NCAA winner, mainly on the basis of Kentucky's presence.
The SEC (which also includes Florida, Mississippi State, Alabama, LSU, and Auburn) is
listed at 11/5 according to Sportsbook.com, followed by the Big 12 (which
has Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Missouri, and Colorado) at 5/2, and the
Pac-10 (featuring not only Arizona but also Stanford, Oregon, California and Arizona
State) at 3/1.
AND THE STAR WILL BE.................
Intertops has posted numbers on who will wind up being named the Most
Outstanding Player in the NCAA Tournament. This proposition is a little dicey in that
you've got to figure that a player absolutely needs to get to the Final Four, and in fact,
will probably have to be in the national champion's lineup, has the inside track to win
this. Keith Bogans, the star guard of Kentucky, is at the top of the list, at +250 (5/2).
Arizona's Jason Gardner is +600 (6/1), and his teammate, Luke Walton, is +1500 (15/1). TJ
Ford, the point guard at Texas and considered by many to be the best player in the
country, is second favorite at +300 (3/1), which is probably more a testament to the
respect for his impact on a game than the respect his team garners. Hollis Price, another
"impact" point guard, is +500 (5/1), with Josh Howard of Wake Forest at +1000,
Nick Collison of Kansas at +1200, and a trio of players at +1500 (15/1) - Walton, Brandon
Knight of Pittsburgh, and Marquis Estill of Kentucky.
AND THE "OTHER" TOURNAMENTS.........
Yes, there is another men's tournament going on simultaneously with the NCAA's, and it's,
of course, the NIT. Going into Tuesday's games, Bob Knight's Texas Tech team and the
under-achieving North Carolina Tar Heels were the co-favorites, at 5/1 from Olympic
Sports. In North Carolina's case, it's interesting, because even though the Tar
Heels had a very disappointing season, word is that coach Matt Doherty is on the hot seat,
so a strong tournament appearance might be necessary in keeping things
"copasetic" in Chapel Hill. North Carolina is led by outstanding freshman guard
Raymond Felton, but they've been hurt by the season-ending injury to inside power player
Sean May, another freshman.
Georgia Tech is 6/1 in this field, with Boston College and St. John's at 8/1. Ohio State,
which got all the way to the finals of the Big 10 tournament, is 12/1, and temple, which
overcame a horrid start to get to the championship game in the Atlantic-10, is 15/1. The
Owls could make something happen in this tourney, as John Chaney is another "old
school" coach who believes in toughening his kids up with a rigorous pre-conference
schedule, in preparation for the post-season. And keep an eye on the College of
Charleston, which has covered all ten games away from home this season, and is undefeated
as an underdog (7-0 ATS).
Sportsbook.com giving every indication they'll have multiple player props
throughout the NIT. For example, for Tuesday's action, Mike Sweetney of Georgetown is a
-240/+180 favorite to record a double-double (double digits in both points and rebounds).
And Ron Slay, playing for the opposing team from Tennessee, carries with him an over/under
of 22.5 points (bet -115 either way).
AND DON'T FORGET ABOUT THE WOMEN
Despite the fact that they suffered an upset loss to Villanova in the Big East tournament,
U-Conn is the odds-on favorite to win the NCAA Women's title. At Olympic Sports,
the Lady Huskies are 11/10 (+110) to capture the championship, but Tennessee and Duke are
not far behind, at 5/2 (+250) and 3/1 (+300), respectively. A couple of more teams are in
single digits - Kansas State, at 6/1 (+600), and LSU, at 13/2 (+650). A few years ago,
when Duke appeared to be head and shoulders above the rest of the men's field, they opened
up a 1/7 favorite, and there was little value in the "also-rans" (U-Conn beat
them that year). But if you still feel U-Conn out-classes everything out there in women's
basketball, they actually look like a bargain, don't they?
WHO WILL GET EXTRA LUCKY?
No matter how well anyone plays in the NCAA tournament, it probably will not elevate that
player to the status of #1 choice in the draft. Obviously, that spot is reserved for high
school phenom LeBron James, who is ticketed, in all probability, for whoever wins the NBA
Draft Lottery. Here are the odds on two different propositions, from Intertops
- who will be the NBA team that drafts James, and who will win the lottery. The subtle
differences in the two listings take into account, most likely, teams that might trade the
pick instead:
INTERTOPS
TEAM TO DRAFT LEBRON JAMES
Cleveland Cavaliers +200
Denver Nuggets +300
Toronto Raptors +600
Los Angeles Clippers +600
Miami Heat +800
Memphis Grizzles +1000
Chicago Bulls +1000
Atlanta Hawks +1200
Detroit Pistons +1500
New York Knicks +1700
Golden State Warriors +2500
Seattle Supersonics +2500
Milwaukee Bucks +3000
Washington Wizards +4000
Minnesota Timberwolves +6000
New Orleans Hornets +6000
Los Angeles Lakers +6500
Houston Rockets +6500
Orlando Magic +6500
Philadelphia 76ers +7500
TEAM TO WIN THE DRAFT LOTTERY
Cleveland Cavaliers +300
Denver Nuggets +400
Memphis Grizzlies +400
Toronto Raptors +600
Los Angeles Clippers +600
Miami Heat +900
Chicago Bulls +1000
Atlanta Hawks +1200
New York Knicks +2000
Seattle Supersonics +2500
Golden State Warriors +2500
Washington Wizards +4000
Los Angeles Lakers +6500
All information for entertainment purposes only. As always, prices are subject to change.
And remember - you can't get hurt by shopping around!
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