WILL BOXING SCORE A
KNOCKOUT AT THE OSCARS?
By CHARLES JAY, Editor/Publisher, TotalAction.com
Posted February 27, 2005
"Million Dollar Baby", Clint Eastwood's
controversial, critically-acclaimed tale of a female fighter's
quest for ring stardom and the crabby trainer who became her
father figure, is nominated in seven different categories in
tonight's Academy Awards.
Indications are that the film is likely to take home at least
two of the awards, and may be closing fast for a couple more.
Hilary Swank, a previous Oscar winner who portrayed Maggie,
the fighter in "Million Dollar Baby," is a clear-cut
favorite for Best Actress. At Intertops,
you actually have to lay 10/1 on her to win (-1000). Generally
Swank's supporters will lay anywhere from -350 to -500. The best
price we found on her (and we surveyed 21 online sportsbooks)
was -286 at Eurobet. With
that number, you could actually obtain a "middle" or
"scalp" on the other end with Pinnacle
Sports, the only place doing two-way propositions on the
major categories. At Pinnacle, as of late Saturday night, it was
-361 that Swank, would win the Oscar, with a takeback of +331
that she wouldn't. A "scalp" means that you could bet
two opposite sides of a propositions and be guaranteed to come
out with a profit. Between +331 and -286, it represents quite a
chasm within which one can move.
The movie also has another favorite - Morgan Freeman in the
Best Supporting Actor category. Bodog.com
is making its customers lay 4/1(-400) on Freeman. Gamebookers
and Intertops both have him at -333. Diamond
Sports International has a good price if you like Freeman
(just -240) and Eurobet has him way down there, at -200. For the
most part, Freeman is priced between -250 and -300. The veteran
performer has been nominated before, but has never won the
Oscar, so he may carry a sentimental edge into the fray over
Thomas Haden Church and Golden Globe winner Clive Owen, as well
as Alan Alda, a first-time nominee known best for his TV work,
and Jamie Foxx, who is considered to be a lock for Best Actor.
Earlier in the process, "The Aviator" and its
director, Martin Scorcese, were considered to have a firm grip
on Oscar gold. But Eastwood and his film appear to be gaining.
Eastwood is solidly in contention for Best Director, listed at
+120 at a host of sportsbooks, including Olympic
Sports, World Sports Exchange,
TotalBet, UK
Betting and Bowman's. But he's getting a lot more in the way
of respect from Eurobet (-125), Intertops (-125) and BetOnSports
(-140). Pinnacle's two-way prop has Clint laying money either
way: it is -133 that Eastwood will win, and -143 that he will
not. A clue might have come from the Director Guild award, which
went to Eastwood. In 49 of 55 years, whoever got the nod from
the DGA went on to win the Oscar.
In the Best Picture sweepstakes, "Million Dollar
Baby" is really the only legitimate contender other than
"The Aviator." According to the "Buzzboard"
at Movies.com, "We had
The Aviator as the fave here for a long time, but it's looking
more and more as though Million Dollar Baby will be Oscar
night's big winner." Maybe, maybe not. A number of books,
including Paddy Power, SportingOdds,
Bet 24 and Sports
Interaction have the film as high as 2/1 (+200). BetOnSports,
though, has it at even money; most of the others post it between
+170 and +190.
Only a couple of sportsbooks offer numbers on the Best
Editing category. "Million Dollar Baby" is a contender
there as well, drawing a price of +150 at BetOnSports and +155
at Olympic Sports. Inasmuch as "Sideways" is
considered a major favorite to win Best Adapted Screenplay,
"Million Dollar Baby" is an also-ran, listed at +400
at BetOnSports and +500 at Olympic Sports.
Eastwood is given very little shot at winning Best Actor,
since everyone is laying a very large price on Jamie Foxx of
"Ray." Eastwood is 12/1 at SuperOdds.com
and 14/1 at Intertops, but is as high as 33/1 at World Sports
Exchange, Canbet and
Gamebookers. Indeed, if Foxx is a lock for the big award, as
most people expect, it really doesn't matter what number you'd
place on Clint.
And we saved the best for last.
In the "Shameless Plugs" department, Diamond
Sports International (http://www.2betdsi.com
- look for "Oscar Props") is carrying over four dozen
special Oscar offerings from yours truly as they are provided
through my service, The Charles Jay Line. It's probably the
largest list of Academy Award props ever posted.
As some of them pertain to "Million Dollar Baby,"
the "Make His Day" prop places a 30/1 price on Clint
Eastwood winning both Best Director and Best Actor. It's 20/1
that the film will be completely shut out of an Oscar, and 130/1
that it will sweep Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best
Supporting Actor and Best Director.
There's an "I Got Wood" prop, where wins must be
produced by Eastwood for Best Director and Best Actor,
"Hardwood" for Best Documentary Short Subject, and
either Colleen Atwood ("Lemony Snicket") or Bob
Ringwood ("Troy") for Best Costume Design. The payoff
- 285/1.
We had a "Hilary Squared" prop where the price was
+375 that Hilary Swank would win a Best Actress Oscar and Hilary
Duff a Worst Actress Raspberry (Razzie) award, but
unfortunately, Duff didn't hold up her end.
My own personal favorites, however, don't have much to do
with "Million Dollar Baby" but play on a boxing theme
- well, sort of. In the "Ray-Leonard" prop, it's 40/1
that "RAY" will win an Oscar for Best Picture and
Dennis LEONARD will capture Best Sound Editing for "The
Polar Express."
And then there's the "Ali-Frazier" proposition,
pairing Karolyn ALI (Best Documentary Feature - "Tupac:
Resurrection") and John FRAZIER (Best Visual Effects -
"Spider Man 2"). If they both win, it's a return of
11/1.
While that might not be a "Thrilla in Manila," it's
a pretty good deal nonetheless.
(All
information is presented for entertainment purposes only. Odds
posted were current as of early Sunday morning. Odds naturally
are subject to change, so check first with each individual
sportsbook.)
Copyright 2006 Total Action Inc.
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